评分 6.5 · 来源：cs.LG updates on arXiv.org · 发布于 2026-04-17
评分依据：Unique benchmark using live Polymarket data with CLOB + news streams, novel evaluation paradigm for LLM prediction
arXiv:2604.14199v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline — a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present \textbf{PolyBench}, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream.